Five reasons why Cain Velasquez will defeat Brock Lesnar (or not)
Posted By Anton_Gurevich UFC News

Undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar has successfully defended his title against possibly the biggest threat in his career so far, Shane “The Engineer” Carwin. Lesnar was dominated by his opponent in the first round, but managed to bounce back and unexpectedly force Carwin to tap out for the perfectly-executed Arm Triangle.

Caught into a positive match-making headache, UFC are forced to bring the Hunter from Minnesota back to the Octagon as soon as possible. Lesnar’s next opponent will also carry an unbeaten record, the American Kickboxing Academy product Cain Velasquez.

Both Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar have their own strengths and weaknesses. Both fighters are a perfect example of a modern Heavyweight MMA fighter, what results in a probably the best match-up in the history of the UFC’s 265 division:

Pictures: ESPN MMA

1. Speed
Cain Velasquez is by far the fastest Heavyweight in the UFC. Velasquez moves like a tornado inside the Octagon. His opponents have no time to think about their next move, as they already have to defend a takedown attempt. The fights against Ben Rothwell and Cheick Kongo are a perfect example of how fast Cain Velasquez closes the striking gap, and moves in-out of his opponent’s range. The fact that Velasquez weights approximately 245 pounds is a key factor. His main advantage is speed, and you can’t move that fast weighting 265 pounds.

Why not?
You can’t move that fast weighting 265 pounds, unless your name is Brock Lesnar. Watching Lesnar charging at the knocked down Heath Herring at UFC 87 is a pretty intimidating sight. Lesnar’s speed comes from his incredible explosiveness, and it may be the key to neutralize Cain Velasquez speed advantage.

2. Striking
Cain Velasquez’ has probably the most underrated striking in the division, even after he impressively knocked out Minotauro Nogueira. Velasquez is putting more emphasis on his wrestling, but it doesn’t mean that he cannot strike. In fact, his all-but-one of his fights are coming by the way of TKO victory. The way he boxed with Nogueira (who previously dominated Randy Couture in stand up), is a good example of why you don’t want to engage is a fisticuffs with Velasquez.

Why not?
Lesnar’s chin will absorb everything. Shane Carwin’s would knock 99% of Heavyweights clean out. Frank Mir’s knee at UFC 100% would also send most of the Heavyweights directly to the canvas. No one in the UFC Heavyweight division hits hard as Shane Carwin, and Brock Lesnar managed to survive this test.

 

3. American Kickboxing Academy
Training at the American Kickboxing Academy might be the key factor in Cain Velasquez future victory over Brock Lesnar. Velasquez will have an incredible pool of talent available at his disposal, including some of the top Wrestlers in MMA today. Training alongside Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck will prepare Cain Velasquez for the Wrestling fight against Brock Lesnar.

Why not?
Maybe A.K.A. will not have to work that hard to find a Wrestler of Brock Lesnar's caliber, but they will work really hard to find a Wrestler in the caliber and the size of Brock Lesnar. Also, Brock Lesnar’s training camp proved himself against the toughest competitors the division has to offer, especially with the coach Greg Nelson by his side.

4. Wrestling
Personally, I don’t believe that Cain Velasquez will be able to take Brock Lesnar down. More than that, I think that taking Brock Lesnar down will probably not be included in his gameplan. Velasquez’ Wrestling credentials will be able to help him defending Lesnar’s takedowns, and keep the fight on the feet. Cain Velasquez is a two-time NCAA Division I Champion, and there’s no better way to use his techniques than cutting Brock Lesnar’s main advantage.

Why not?
Well, Brock Lesnar is a four-time NCAA Division I champion. But it’s not the titles what will decide the outcome of the fight between the two. Lesnar’s huge size advantage could be the main factor in whether he succeeds taking Cain Velasquez down to the ground. And we all know what happens when Brock Lesnar takes the fight to the ground.

5. Brown Pride
I personally think that mental preparation is the most important aspect of fighting, and right next to Jon Jones and Georges St. Pierre, Cain Velasquez is the most determined fighter in UFC today. His self-criticism is what the greatest Champions are made of. That’s exactly what makes you to constantly improve and push yourself to the new limits during training. You may disagree with it or even hate it, but Cain Velasquez truly believes (and he is) that he represents his own community. That’s what keeps him motivated, and that’s could well be the main factor in his fight against Brock Lesnar.

Why not?
Brock Lesnar was one step from the grave during his terrible Diverticulitis illness. His incredible determination helped him to return to Mixed Martial Arts and defend his UFC Heavyweight title. Brock Lesnar was in a deep trouble against Shane Carwin, but still managed to re-organize himself between the rounds, capitalizing on his opponent’s poor form. The new Brock Lesnar believes in his team and training parters more than ever. It’s a different type of motivation and mental state than the one Cain Velasquez has, but it still has basically the same effect. Humble, self-driven Brock Lesnar is a dangerous specimen, and it will take a lot of effort to take the UFC Heavyweight title out of his claws.